Evidence-based opinions

Twitter I have found is not a great medium for bringing clarity to a situation, so I have returned to blogging and I will try to have something useful and accurate to say at least once a month. If I occasionally get stuff wrong or repeat misinformation, let me apologise in advance.

If you aren’t sure about the truth of something I say then feel free to ask me to explain further. If you want to flat-out challenge what I have said, please bring your research and data and insight along with your comments. We can all learn from evidence.

I encountered someone being irrational recently, and I tried to clarify things with a simple example. If I had a winning lottery ticket hidden in one hand, and nothing in the other and I held them out for you and another person to choose, who would have a better chance of getting the winning ticket, the person who chose first or the person who chose second? To my surprise they insisted the person going first had a better chance of winning and they would not be persuaded otherwise.

: ) jim


One Response

  1. Jim,
    This is a beautiful example of the sales process and why it often goes wrong.
    Technical reasoning does not always win. So despite the question you are asking, the one they insist on answering is ‘do you want to make the call or have it taken out of your hands’. People fundamentally believe they will be better of by being in charge of their own destiny. So they will feel better if they go first. so therefore going first has a better outcome than going second, so your evaluation of what is winning and what is losing needs to be expanded to include the total outcome range.

    Reminds me of the quote that went along the lines of ‘I know you understand what you think I said, but what I said is not what I intended it to mean….etc’


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